Low Earth orbit is filling up. The 700–900 km shell — where most of the surviving hardware operates — now carries roughly 36,500 trackable objects larger than 10 cm, and the mechanics have stopped being gentle: debris–debris collision rates scale with the square of the population. Double the fragments, quadruple the impacts. Past the critical density, every collision breeds more debris than atmospheric drag can retire. This is the Kessler feedback loop, running live, in the same sky as everything else.

The cascade was run one thousand times over fifty simulated years — no free parameters, fragment yields calibrated against the three documented breakup events. The median path ends with the debris load up 41×. That part is physics, and physics doesn't negotiate.

The interesting part is the price. Insurers still book in-orbit failure at the 0.5% historical rate — $125M a year for a 500-satellite portfolio. Run the same losses through a cascade-correlated Solvency II decomposition and the number becomes $2,058M a year. The $1,933M gap is not a rounding error. It is an unfunded liability, quietly orbiting above the market's head. One analyst asked us to soften that sentence. We kept it.